4th Have a look at Native Housing Markets in November; California Gross sales off 48% YoY

by Calculated Danger on 12/19/2022 11:16:00 AM

At the moment, within the Calculated Danger Actual Property E-newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY

A quick excerpt:

Here’s a desk evaluating the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in gross sales this 12 months from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors® (NAR) with the native markets I monitor. To date, these measures have tracked carefully, and the preliminary knowledge beneath suggests a pointy decline in gross sales in November.

NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report gross sales of 4.16 million SAAR for November (the NAR stories this coming Wednesday). The consensus is for the NAR to report 4.20 million. (Lawler has an excellent track record).

NAR vs Local Markets NSAGross sales in a few of the hottest markets are down round 40% YoY (all of California was down 47.7%), whereas in different markets, gross sales are solely down in round 20% YoY.

In November, gross sales have been down 36.3% in these markets. In October, these similar markets have been down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Be aware that in November 2022, there have been the identical variety of promoting days as in November 2021, so the SA decline might be much like the NSA decline. And this implies one other important step down in gross sales in November!

Extra native markets to return!

There’s far more within the article. You’ll be able to subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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