Enterprise Cycle Indicators, Mid-November

Industrial manufacturing is out, -0.6% m/m vs. consensus -0.3%. Right here’s the image of enterprise cycle indicators adopted by the NBER’s BCDC, together with SPGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) month-to-month GDP:

Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 third launch incorporating complete revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (11/1/2023 launch), and creator’s calculations.

The draw back surprises within the CPI and industrial manufacturing appear to have pushed down ten yr Treasury yields, whereas the PPI shock had little impact.