On the finish of November the Dow Jones Industrial Common ETF (DIA) superior simply above +20% from its October low and formally entered a brand new bull market; nonetheless, technically, an intermediate-term rising development had not been established. There’s a backside above the September backside (inexperienced arrows), however there’s not but a high above the November high. In truth the final high is decrease than the November high, and the following factor we’re searching for is for worth to fall under the December backside to determine a brand new falling development. The PMO (Value Momentum Oscillator) has topped and crossed down via the sign line (PMO SELL Sign).
Different main indexes have additionally faltered. The S&P 500 (SPY) by no means made it to bull market territory. It additionally failed to determine a brand new rising development, and its PMO has topped.
The S&P 400 Mid-Cap (MDY) really did make the next high, but it surely has turned down and fashioned a bearish rising wedge.
The S&P 600 Small-Cap (IJR) is much like SPY and DIA.
Whereas the broad market has rallied off the October lows, the Nasdaq Composite (ONEQ) has been lifeless within the water, rallying solely +11%. The perfect that may be mentioned about at current is that it has fashioned a bullish falling wedge.
Conclusion: Whereas the Dow managed to advance into bull territory, different main indexes stay in bear markets. The keenness that helped the market rally out of the October lows is fading, and present indicators are that the rising development can be deserted and a brand new falling development established. It’s not too late for the bull to be revived, however at this level the market seems to be turning down.
Watch the most recent episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!
Technical Evaluation is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2023 DecisionPoint.com
Useful DecisionPoint Hyperlinks:
DecisionPoint isn’t a registered funding advisor. Funding and buying and selling selections are solely your duty. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or web site supplies ought to NOT be interpreted as a suggestion or solicitation to purchase or promote any safety or to take any particular motion.
Carl Swenlin is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market evaluation since 1981. A pioneer within the creation of on-line technical assets, he was president and founding father of DecisionPoint.com, one of many premier market timing and technical evaluation web sites on the internet. DecisionPoint focuses on inventory market indicators and charting. Since DecisionPoint merged with StockCharts.com in 2013, Carl has served a consulting technical analyst and weblog contributor.