Rents Proceed to Decline Greater than Seasonally Regular

by Calculated Danger on 1/05/2023 09:49:00 AM

As we speak, within the Calculated Danger Actual Property E-newsletter: Rents Continue to Decline More than Seasonally Normal

A short excerpt:

OER and lease of main residence have largely moved collectively. The Zillow index began in 2014, the ApartmentList index began in 2017, and CoreLogic in 2004.

Here’s a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of those measures are by means of November 2022, besides CoreLogic is thru October and Condominium Listing is thru December 2022.

Observe that new lease measures (Zillow, Condominium Listing) dipped early within the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures have been regular. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are choosing up.

The CoreLogic measure is up 8.8% YoY in October, down from 10.2% in September, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.

The Zillow measure is up 8.4% YoY in November, down from 9.6% YoY in October, and down from a peak of 17.1% YoY in February 2022.

The ApartmentList measure is up 3.9% YoY as of December, down from 4.5% in November, and down from a peak of 18.1% YoY November 2021.